Update on COVID-19 visuals for Nigeria

It is now 381 days since the first COVID-19 case was reported in Nigeria. As at March 15, 2021 the confirmed cases are 163,646 with 2,016 (1.25%) fatalities, however, 145,752 (90.59%) have recovered.

Based on equal days forecast, by March 31, 2022, Nigeria’s aggregate confirmed COVID-19 cases are forecast to be:

Model Confirmed cases Recoveries Fatalities RMSE
Smooth Spline 889,385 805,694 11,117 371
Upper ARIMA 805,328 729,547 10,067 209
Quadratic Polynomial 598,274 541,977 7,478 374
Essembled based on summed weight -70,387 -63,763 -880 185
Essembled based on weight of fit -94,320 -85,444 -1,179 284
Essembled based on weight -182,959 -165,743 -2,287 180
Essembled with equal weight -426,038 -385,948 -5,325 232
Lower ARIMA -626,365 -567,424 -7,830 209
Without knots -815,453 -738,719 -10,193 200
With knots -1,114,856 -1,009,948 -13,936 187

Take a further look at some of the visuals

Job Nmadu
Professor of Agricultural Economics and Dean, School of Agriculture and Agricultural Technology

My research interests include economics and efficiencies of small scale farming as well as welfare effects of various agricultural interventions on the farming populace.

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