Publications

Economic management is the rules, policies, procedures and skills deployed to manage the resources, finances, income, and expenditure of a community, business enterprise or a whole country. The major instruments of economic management are the fiscal and economic development policies normally outlined in the countries budget by the President. The failure to achieve the stated objectives in the fiscal and monetary policies are the major challenges faced by less developed and developing countries of the world. This is because of frequent fluctuations in macro-prices particularly interest, wage and exchange rates. The resultant effects of the movement of these prices are reflected in the inflation and the GDP growth rates which adversely affects agribusiness activities. In this study, the trend of the movement of monthly inflation rate between 1996 and 2020 in Nigeria was investigated. The data, which were obtained from the records of the Central bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics as well as the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, were analyzed using descriptive statistics as well as cubic, spline and smoothing methods. The results, which showed Nigeria’s average inflation for the period under study to be 12.42%, was better managed during civilian administrations (with a mean of 11.8%) but was higher than most countries of the world. Among the smoothing methods, Holt-Winters predicted (1996-2020) and forecast (2020-2042) Nigerian inflation better than other methods with a mean forecast of 11.25. Among the presidents, the Goodluck Jonathan era witnessed the most stable inflation regime with a mean of 10.2%. The results further reveal that a stable inflation is capable of increasing agriculture GDP by 1.0885% yearly although only short-run dynamics is apparent. It is recommended that more technical skills rather than guesswork policies should be deployed by the government to better manage the inflationary trend so that Nigeria could return to single-digit inflation regime that was once achieved.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a platform created to increase intra-trade and ease movement of persons and goods across borders within Africa as well as promote economic welfare and wellbeing of member states. Nigeria being a signatory, faces the question of what is that first step to be taken in order to enhance farmers income and promote positive welfare and impacts. Based on the optimisation of the multi-sector 2012 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) using dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE), Nigeria is not a self-sufficient economy and the deficit to meet subsistence demands for goods and services is about NGN251T (USD69B) with the following sectors being the most deficient, namely, bananas and plantains, sorghum and millet, education, maize, pulses. The sectors that have exerted the greatest pull on the economy in terms of intermediate demand for goods and services are clothing, fruit and vegetable processing, petroleum products, dairy and textiles. However, coal and lignite, animal feed, sugarcane, wheat and barley, tobacco sectors have the most capacity to push the economy towards self-sufficiency. The results further revealed that there was welfare (equivalent variation) loss of about 5.02 utility levels below the optimum while the compensating variation, the income households are compensated with for changes in income to maintain the same level of welfare is -NGN3.8T (-USD10.5B), indicating that the households, particularly farmers, are subsidising the economy rather than being compensated for changes in prices. Therefore, the first step in the wake of the AfCFTA should be more emphasis on production and processing of goods and services for domestic consumption, which reduces imports bills put at NGN12T. It is recommended that emphasis should be to build the infrastructure for increased agricultural processing capacities about two-fold above the present rate thereby increasing the income accruing to farm and rural families by about 35% from the present NGN22B (USD63M).

This study presents the results from a meso-inventory with a recall over 10 years of numbers of actors of different size strata in the fish value chain segments in Niger State, Northern Nigeria. It was conducted between March and July 2018. We explore the growth and changing structure of the fish value chain in the state. The 9 segments studied include hatcheries and feed mills (as inputs to the farmed fish segment), fish production (fish farmers and fishers), urban and rural wholesalers and retailers, and fish processors.