Determination of the long run equilibrium between sorghum and millet supply in Nigeria using error correction model


This study examined the time series properties of sorghum and millet hectarage as well as consumer price index and rainfall between 1961 and 2004 and found that they are I(1) and exhibited random walk without drift. It was also found that sorghum is cointegrated with millet only when some other explanatory variables are included in the cointegrating equation and also has long run relationship as exhibited by the disequilibrium term. There was no evidence of granger causality either between sorghum and millet or between sorghum and its lagged values. Result also indicated a very low level of technical change in sorghum economy. The policy implications of these have been highlighted.

39th Annual Conference of the Agricultural Society of Nigerian, University of Benin, Benin City, October, 2005
Cointegration error correction model granger causality order of integration
Job Nmadu
Professor of Agricultural Economics and Dean, School of Agriculture and Agricultural Technology

Research interests are economic efficiencies of small scale farming and welfare effects of agricultural interventions.