Structural Analysis and Forecast of Nigerian Monthly Inflation Movement between 1996 and 2022


Forecasting leads to adequate and comprehensive planning for sustainable development. A number of procedures are used to estimate, predict and forecast data, but not all are able to capture the historical path of the data generating process adequately. In view of this, the timeseries characteristics, structural changes and trend of inflation in Nigeria (1996-2022) were analyzed using ARMA, Holt-Winters, spline and other associated models. The results indicated that inflation in Nigeria has remained above acceptable limits in a cyclical trend during the period under study and that there is every possibility that Nigerian inflation would remain above 10% for some time to come. There were six shocks, the major stressors being food inflation, oil and gas prices and wages adjustment. For Nigeria to achieve a stable inflation rate regime of acceptable limits, a robust economic management and intelligence team using a global innovation platform as well as evidencedbased policies which ensure that Nigeria does not swerve away from the path to recovery should be established in consultation with the fiscal, monetary, and research authorities.

29th International RAIS Conference on Social Sciences and Humanities, American University, in Washington DC, USA, August 14- 15
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b-splines Holt Winters smoothing Nigerian inflation structural breaks cyclical trend
Job Nmadu
Professor of Agricultural Economics and Dean, School of Agriculture and Agricultural Technology

Research interests are economic efficiencies of small scale farming and welfare effects of agricultural interventions.